Eco-Efficiency Models for the Future of the Global Digital Economy: Convergence or Divergence

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of the study is to identify models for the future development of the global digital economy from the perspective of eco-efficiency and to identify the most promising one of them. Design/Methodology/Approach: A new author’s method for assessing the eco-efficiency of the digital economy has been developed, which is used to assess the eco-efficiency of the digital economy on the example of the G7 and BRICS countries in 2019. The Monte Carlo method has identified the most likely future values of eco-efficiency indices in the countries of the categories under consideration, as well as the probability of achieving these values. On the given values of arithmetic mean and standard deviations, 100 random numbers on the countries of both categories were generated, and histograms were drawn up. Simplex method determined the values of GDP per capita and “green” economy indices to achieve the target values of environmental performance indices (IEcoEff) in the G7 countries and BRICS countries, and also determined the effectiveness of convergence and divergence models. Findings: The study revealed that models of future development of the global digital economy in terms of eco-efficiency are associated with convergence and divergence in different forms (efficiency 0.0240). The model of convergence only allows to achieve a balance due to the decline in eco-efficiency in both developed and developing countries. Originality/Value: The most preferable (efficiency 0.2549) is the divergence model, which implies maintaining at the current level the differences in the level of environmental efficiency between developed and developing countries while increasing their GDP per capita (1.21 times in the G7 countries and 1.22 times in the BRICS countries) and the “green” economy (1.21 times in the G7 countries and 1.004 times in the BRICS countries).