Impacts of climate change on maize and winter wheat yields in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on maize and winter wheat yields in China from 1961 to 2010 were studied in the current paper, based on provincial data. The results indicated that rising average temperatures resulted in decreased maize yield in most of the study regions, and reduced maize production at a national scale by c. 3·4% relative to the average from 1961 to 2010. Moreover, the warming resulted in a decrease of winter wheat yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai and southwest regions and led to an overall loss in production of c. 5·8% at a national scale. The decrease of diurnal temperature range (DTR) affected maize yield adversely in the west and central regions, but a beneficial DTR effect was observed in the other provinces. The changes in DTR resulted in increased maize production at a national scale by c. 0·6%. However, the generally decreasing trends for DTR resulted in an increasing winter wheat yield in the northwest and south regions but a decreasing yield in the other provinces, and the production of winter wheat at a national scale was reduced by c. 2·9% because of changes in DTR. Changes in precipitation increased maize and winter wheat yields in some provinces but reduced crop yield in others. There was no significant effect of precipitation on maize production at a national scale, but the contribution of precipitation change reached c. 1·6% for winter wheat production.