Determinants of irregular demand for regional rail passenger services – case study of High Tatras in Slovakia

Abstract

The demand for public transport by tourists increases significantly in tourist-attractive destinations. This is in addition to regular passengers commuting to school and work. The level of irregular demand is influenced by several factors related to the characteristics of the day of the week, the period of the year, and the current weather. The main goal of the paper is to verify which factors most influence the irregular demand for transport in a tourist-attractive area to ensure operational planning of public passenger transport. Thanks to this, it is possible to ensure sufficient capacity and, at the same time, the efficiency of the operation of public passenger transport. The paper analyzes the main determinants of the irregular demand for regional public rail passenger transport in the High Tatras region of Slovakia. Multiple linear regressions were used to model the number of irregular passengers. The variables representing the day of the week, the attractiveness of the period, and the holiday were found to be the most significant. The variables describing the weather such as maximum daily temperature, precipitation, clouds, and wind had less influence. The obtained mathematical models for forecasting the irregular demand for public passenger transport can help optimize the timetable’s operational setting and the train sets’ size.