Harmonic Analysis of Precipitation Time Series in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study presents harmonic analysis of precipitation observations within the Lake Tana Basin for the periods of 1985-2015. The livelihood of several millions of people within the basin and outside the basin is governed by the precipitation conditions within this basin. Large spatial and temporal variabilities of precipitation can increase the incidence of extreme events such as floods and droughts. It is important to identify the characteristics of these variations, and this study aims at investigating the characteristics of the seasonal and annual cycles of precipitation within the Lake Tana Basin using harmonic analysis. Precipitation data of 31 years from four weather stations were used in the analysis. We then applied harmonic analysis to calculate the amplitude, phase shift, and variance of observation. Detailed characteristics of the first five harmonics are presented and discussed. We found the amplitude of the first harmonic to be 173.42, 177.93, 127.77, and 188.78 mm for Debre Tabor, Bahir Dar, Gondar, and Dangila, respectively. This shows that Dangila areas got more rainfall during this fundamental period than others increasing from Gondar to Dangila direction. Also, the variance in the first harmonic is smaller than the variances of other harmonics, and this means that the large variations of the precipitation originate from higher harmonics (short time periods). This shows that precipitation variations are governed mainly by monthly, seasonal, and semiannual variations. The analysis has shown that maximum precipitation for all stations occurred in July and August.