The societal implications of a comet/asteroid impact on earth: A perspective from international development studies

Abstract

It is important not to let the potential magnitude of the impact from a comet or asteroid impact (CAI) skew discussion. Without doubt the energy released, hence consequences, from an ocean or terrestrial impact would be very large (McGuire 1999, pp 231-235; McGuire et al. 2002, pp 133-158). An impact in the world ocean (approximately 71% of our planet's surface), could affect much of humanity living in large coastal cities and other coastal settlements. Recent trends in urbanization and migration to coastal areas have placed many hundreds of millions of people in harm's way (Wisner et al. 2004, Chap. 2 and 7). <1> A terrestrial impact on a heavily populated area is highly unlikely since humanity's cities cover such a very small percentage of the Earth's surface (only about 2-3%). Yet their ecological footprint is many times greater - 15 times as great in the case of greater Vancouver (Canada), 13 times in the case of the whole of the densely populated Netherlands (Wackernagel and Rees 1996). So in both the case of destruction of coastal cities by large tsunami and an impact on a major urban area, there arises the question of providing for survivors and displaced evacuees (if current or future tsunami warning systems can provide sufficient warning). The challenge of immediate relief (provision of water, food, shelter, sanitation, and medical assistance to survivors) following a tsunami produced by a CAI can be imagined by multiplying the logistical efforts required by the Asian tsunami (December 2005) or the impact of hurricane Katrina on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast (August 2005) by an order of magnitude. © 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.