Does Greater Coercive Capacity Increase Overt Repression? Evidence from China

Abstract

Drawing on an original dataset of Chinese protests, this article documents an evolving relationship between state coercive capacity and overt repression across administrations. Specifically, it finds that under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao (2003–2012) protests in provinces with higher coercive capacity were less likely to meet with a crackdown, whereas the relationship between capacity and repression reversed during the first three years of Xi Jinping’s rule (2013–2015). Although the study demonstrates that the two periods were on average very different, change-point analysis reveals that the inflection point toward a harder line came already in the late Hu-Wen era. The Xi administration’s policies should therefore perhaps be understood more as a manifestation than a cause of shifts in the country’s social control.