Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts

Abstract

We obtain new insights into the reliability of long-term historical Atlantic tropical cyclone ('TC') counts through the use of a statistical model that relates variations in annual Atlantic TC counts to climate state variables. We find that the existence of a substantial undercount bias in late 19th through mid 20th century TC counts is inconsistent with the statistical relationship between TC counts and climate. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.