Recovering matrices of economic flows from incomplete data and a composite prior

Abstract

In several socioeconomic applications, matrices containing information on flows-trade, income or migration flows, for example-are usually not constructed from direct observation but are rather estimated, since the compilation of the information required is often extremely expensive and time-consuming. The estimation process takes as point of departure another matrix which is adjusted until it optimizes some divergence criterion and simultaneously is consistent with some partial information-row and column margins-of the target matrix. Among all the possible criteria to be considered, one of the most popular is the Kullback-Leibler divergence [1], leading to the well-known Cross-Entropy technique. This paper proposes the use of a composite Cross-Entropy approach that allows for introducing a mixture of two types of a priori information-two possible matrices to be included as point of departure in the estimation process. By means of a Monte Carlo simulation experiment, we will show that under some circumstances this approach outperforms other competing estimators. Besides, a real-world case with a matrix of interregional trade is included to show the applicability of the suggested technique. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland.