The Numbers Game: Quantifying Access and Regional Differentiation in Electricity Provision in the Fourth Republic

Abstract

Rural electricity access signifies more than simply securing electric poles and putting communities on the grid. It entails equity in pricing, afford-ability, and regularity in provision for the entire population. An increase from 66% several years ago to the current access rate of 80.51% in this West African nation is undoubtedly significant for a continent where almost 600 million people lack electricity. However, this figure, though admirable, does not capture the nuances of what I term a "numbers game" or the fluidity of the meaning of "access." The puzzle I explore is that of how to reconcile an electricity access rate unmatched by most of sub-Saharan Africa, except for South Africa, with an overwhelming number of Ghanaians (some 75%, according to an Afrobarometer survey last conducted in 2014) who rate government performance in electricity delivery as dismal. 1 This chapter contextualizes the dichotomy of national success in electricity outcomes and regional differentiation and uneven access from data calculated six years ago. Despite the remarkable increase in electricity access in the figures noted above, my argument, which has been updated to reflect recent changes in access, is nonetheless the same. I argue that the heightened saliency of electricity provision is evident in the regional differentiation and a "numbers game" that correlates with voting outcomes. Consequently, this chapter finds that the regions with the higher rates of electricity access are, in fact, electoral "swing" regions. 2 Using electrification data obtained from the MOE after 2008 (an election year), along with national access rates for the country's ten regions,