Long-term consequences of the 2020 coronavirus pandemics: Historical global-macro context

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemics is likely to accelerate the trends of de-globalization and de-dollarization. Over the long term, the major financial consequence is likely to be the accelerated trend of rising inflation and long-term interest rates. More broadly, the post-pandemic environment will likely encompass difficult longer-term economic and geopolitical challenges. Alternatively, the COVID-19 pandemics also creates an opportunity for building a new trend of more sustainable globalization.