Scenarios with economic perspectives under the impact of climate and social changes

Abstract

Climate change and social developments affect economic parameters in different ways. To analyse the complex economic, social and environmental systems and their multidimensional interconnections, we developed the two sophisticated simulation models Demography and Economy (see Chaps. D.10 and D.11) and designed appropriate interfaces to other simulation models representing further parts of the economic, social and environmental system. In this chapter, we compare the results of different scenarios that help to quantify the impact of climate and social developments on various economic parameters. For this purpose, the differences in the trend growth rates of these parameters are analysed and illustrated in maps and figures. Exemplarily, gross regional product and industrial water use inside the Upper Danube river basin are applied. Here, key results show that climate change and demographic developments come along with a reduction in industrial water use of up to �’15.75 % during the period between 2012 and 2025. Likewise, gross regional product (GRP) increases in most regions only below inflation rate, thus, resulting in a negative GRP in real terms (though per capita values are strictly positive). Additional social scenarios, e.g. one which is more capital market orientated or one with increasing environmental concerns in the society, further lever these results.