Strategy and the New Uncertainty

Abstract

In 1983, Shell (the Dutch, global Oil and Gas Group) published their latest set of global scenarios. They were called Incrementalism and the Greening of Russia. The Greening of Russia told a tale about a virtually unknown man coming to power followed by a massive economic and political restructuring in Russia. It was not that this man, as an individual, would bring a halt to the Cold War. Rather that his arrival in power would be a symptom of a set of deep, underlying forces. When the scenario was shared with soviet experts in government agencies, they told Shell that this was as implausible as a fairy story.