Foreign Aid Inflow and Domestic Savings in Uganda: Error Correction Modelling

Abstract

The study sought to establish the impact of foreign aid inflow on domestic savings in Uganda. It was motivated by the low savings ratio which was identified as one of the major constraints to future growth in Uganda, under Vision 2025. Error-Correction Modelling was applied on a time series database for the period 1970-2016. Results of the study show that foreign aid has a negative impact on domestic savings in Uganda both in the short-run and long-run. An increase in foreign aid inflow by 1% of GDP leads to 0.71% decrease in gross domestic savings in the long-run. This implies that an increase in foreign aid as a whole crowded-out domestic savings in the short-run and long-run. By making resources easily available, foreign aid encourages relaxation in saving effort and increases consumption. A policy implication of this result is that Uganda should be wary in soliciting for foreign aid. If foreign aid becomes expedient, then it should be channeled to productive ventures