Extreme precipitation in the tropics is closely associated with long-lived convective systems

Abstract

Water and energy cycles are linked to global warming through the water vapor feedback and heavy precipitation events are expected to intensify as the climate warms. For the mid-latitudes, extreme precipitation theory has been successful in explaining the observations, however, studies of responses in the tropics have diverged. Here we present an analysis of satellite-derived observations of daily accumulated precipitation and of the characteristics of convective systems throughout the tropics to investigate the relationship between the organization of mesoscale convective systems and extreme precipitation in the tropics. We find that 40% of the days with more than 250 mm precipitation over land are associated with convective systems that last more than 24 hours, although those systems only represent 5% of mesoscale convective systems overall. We conclude that long-lived mesoscale convective systems that are well organized contribute disproportionally to extreme tropical precipitation.