Risk-averse scheduling of an energy hub in the presence of correlated uncertain variables considering time of use and real-time pricing-based demand response programs

Abstract

In this paper, a risk-based probabilistic short-term scheduling of a smart energy hub (SEH) is presented considering the uncertain variables and the correlation between them. Neglecting the uncertainty of renewable energy sources (RESs), demands and market prices can make the obtained results unusable. In addition, correlations among uncertain variables may have similar importance on final solutions. To have a more realistic view, the stochastic nature of solar irradiation, wind generation, energy demands, and electrical/thermal/gas market prices are taken into consideration through uncertainty modeling. For this purpose, a probabilistic scenario-based approach is implemented. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to generate an adequate number of scenarios and the Cholesky decomposition technique combined with Nataf transformation is used to make the samples correlated. In addition, the k-means data clustering technique is used to reduce the initial number of scenarios to the most representative 10 scenarios. The addressed SEH comprises photovoltaic panels/a wind turbine/a combined heat and power generation unit/a fuel-cells power plant (FCPP)/a thermal/hydrogen storage system and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). This study aims to optimize the economic aspects while reducing the pollution emissions of the SEH and controlling the risk level of SEH operation. To enhance the flexibility of the SEH in the management of supplying demands with lower costs, the thermal demand response program (DRP) is considered beside the electrical DRP. Two kinds of time of use (TOU) and real-time pricing (RTP) DRPs are used for electrical and thermal loads. The conditional value at risk technique is taken into account to control the deviations of the SEH operation and emission costs. Simulation results show a reasonable reduction in operation and emission costs along with the risk level of the energy hub with the proposed approach. The operation emission, and risk costs are reduced by 37.39%, 32.11%, and 33.16%, respectively, with integrating PEVs, FCPP, and RTP-DRPs. Moreover, integration of PEVs, FCPP along with TOU-based DRPs contribute to reduce the operation emission, and risk costs by 10.47%, 9.03%, and 11.64%, respectively.