Identifying the spatiotemporal variations in ozone formation regimes across China from 2005 to 2019 based on polynomial simulation and causality analysis

Abstract

Ozone formation regimes are closely related to the ratio of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to NOx. Different ranges of HCHO/NO2 indicate three formation regimes, including VOC-limited, transitional, and NOx-limited regimes. Due to the unstable interactions between a diversity of precursors, the range of the transitional regime, which plays a key role in identifying ozone formation regimes, remains unclear. To overcome the uncertainties from single models and the lack of reference data, we employed two models, polynomial simulation and convergent cross-mapping (CCM), to identify the ranges of HCHO/NO2 across China based on ground observations and remote sensing datasets. The ranges of the transitional regime estimated by polynomial simulation and CCM were [1.0, 1.9] and [1.0, 1.8]. Since 2013, the ozone formation regime has changed to the transitional and NOx-limited regime all over China, indicating that ozone concentrations across China were mainly controlled by NOx. However, despite the NO2 concentrations, HCHO concentrations continuously exert a positive influence on ozone concentrations under transitional and NOx-limited regimes. Under the circumstance of national NOx reduction policies, the increase in VOCs became the major driver for the soaring ozone pollution across China. For an effective management of ozone pollution across China, the emission reduction in VOCs and NOx should be equally considered.