Gaming and simulating ethno-political conflicts

Abstract

This chapter begins by describing a universally recurring socio-cultural game of inter-group competition for control of resources. It next describes efforts to author software agents able to play the game as real humans would - which suggests the ability to study alternative ways to influence them, observe PMESII effects, and potentially understand how best to alter the outcomes of potential conflict situations. These agents are unscripted, but use their decision making to react to events as they unfold and to plan out responses. For each agent, a software called PMFserv operates its perception and runs its physiology and personality/value system to determine fatigue and hunger, injuries and related stressors, grievances, tension buildup, impact of rumors and speech acts, emotions, and various collective and individual action decisions. The chapter wraps up with a correspondence test from a SE Asian ethnic conflict, the results of which indicate significant correlation between real and agentbased outcomes. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.