Probabilistic Thinking and Young Children: Theory and Pedagogy

Abstract

Over the last decades, there has been a lot of interest in exploring young children's early probabilistic thinking, considering educational, cognitive and mathematical dimensions in children's learning and development. Today, probability is incorporated in many mathematical and statistical curricula and the ongoing research on children's probabilistic competencies has produced remarkable and educationally valuable conclusions. The aim of this chapter is to critically review key theoretical models of probabilistic thinking that cover the period of early childhood and to highlight a number of pedagogical implications while introducing probabilistic concepts in early childhood educational contexts. The traditional Piagetian claim that children during the preoperational period find it difficult to differentiate certainty and uncertainty seems to be replaced by findings that support children's capacity to engage with notions of probability. Recent research underlines how intuitions and experience, informal mathematical knowledge, probability literacy as well as curriculum development and task design play a significant role in shaping and enhancing preschoolers' probabilistic thinking, not only while they are young but with a lifelong perspective.