A Limit Theorem for Partially Observed Markov Chains

Abstract

Consider a continuous time Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities. A function of the state is observed. A regular conditional probability distribution for the trajectory of the chain, given observations up to time t, is obtained. This distribution also corresponds to a Markov chain, but the conditional chain has nonstationary transition probabilities. In particular, computation of the conditional distribution of the state at time s is discussed. For s > t, we have prediction (extrapolation), while s < t corresponds to smoothing (interpolation). Equations for the conditional state distribution are given on matrix form and as recursive differential equations with varying s or t. These differential equations are closely related to Kolmogorov's forward and backward equations. Markov chains with one observed and one unobserved component are treated as a special case. In an example, the conditional distribution of the change-point is derived for a Poisson process with a changing intensity, given observations of the Poisson process. 1975.