Operational attribution of weather and climate extremes: what next?

Abstract

The science of event attribution has developed considerably in recent years. There is now a growing interest in making this science operational. This perspective considers the challenges involved in doing this and suggests some priorities for further developments. It concludes that there is a requirement to deepen understanding of user needs for operational attribution, that further research will be needed to enable attribution of a wider variety of extreme events and their impacts, that there will have to be a greater underpinning of operational capability for such activities to be achievable, and that improved strategies for communicating results are needed for successful uptake by users.