Modelling the impact of climate change on the occurrence of frost damage in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) in Great Britain

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to increase temperature and seasonal temperature variance in Great Britain (GB). Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr) is the most important tree species used in commercial plantations throughout Europe and GB. Frosts that occur outside the winter dormancy period can negatively affect trees, since they happen after dehardening. Damage can be especially severe at bud burst, before emerging needles mature and form protective barriers. Here, we modelled the impact of climate change on frost sensitivity in Sitka spruce with temperature data from five climate projections. The UKCP09 climate model HadRm3 uses emission scenario SRESA1B for the years 2020-2099. The global and downscaled versions of the UKCP18 HadGem3 model use the emissions scenario RCP 8.5. The global model CMCC-CM uses the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios. The predictions based on these models were compared with results from gridded historical data for the period 1960-2015. Three indicators that assessed the frost sensitivity of Sitka spruce were explored: the total number of frosts between the onset of dehardening and the end of summer, which use three different temperature thresholds (Index 10°C, 1-3°C, 1-5°C); the total number of frosts after bud burst (Index 2); the number of days with minimum temperatures below the resistance level (backlashes) during the hardening-dehardening period (September-August) (Index 3). The indices were validated with historical data for frost damage across GB, and Index 1-3°C, Index 1-5°C and Index 3 were shown to be significantly correlated. The frequency of all frosts and backlashes is expected to decrease with climate change, especially under higher emissions scenarios. Post-bud burst frosts have been historically very rare in GB and remain so with climate change. Downscaled regional climate models detect geographic variability within GB and improve prediction of overall trends in frost damage in comparison to global climate change models for GB.