Cumulative probability of live birth after three in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles

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Abstract

Objective: To assess the probability of live birth after three available in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) cycles. Design: Retrospective, observational study. Setting: University hospital. Patient(s): Nine hundred seventy-four couples who started their first conventional IVF or ICSI cycle between January 1996 and December 1997. A total of 1985 stimulated cycles were initiated. Intervention(s): Analysis of the cumulative live birth rate using the life-table approach with and without taking dropouts into account. Main Outcome Measure(s): Cumulative live birth rate. Result(s): The overall cumulative live birth rate after three completed stimulated cycles (including freezing/thawing cycles) was 65.5% with an 'optimistic' approach. For the 'realistic' and 'pessimistic' approaches the corresponding figures were 63.1% and 55.5%, respectively. Unexpectedly, 65% of couples not achieving a live birth interrupted the full treatment program of three cycles. Conclusion(s): The cumulative live birth rate gives the couple a more accurate prognosis of achieving a live birth after IVF/ICSI than the statistics usually provided. With the 'realistic' estimation, 63% of the couples achieved childbirth after three available conventional IVF or ICSI cycles. Further studies are required to investigate the high drop-out rate. Copyright © 2002 American Society for Reproductive Medicine.

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Olivius, K., Friden, B., Lundin, K., & Bergh, C. (2002). Cumulative probability of live birth after three in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles. Fertility and Sterility, 77(3), 505–510. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0015-0282(01)03217-4

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