Long-Term Freezing Temperatures Frequency Change Effect on Wind Energy Gain (Eurasia and North America, 1950–2019)

Abstract

The persistent freezing conditions in cold regions are the cause of ice accretion on mechanical and instrumental elements of wind turbines. Consequently, remarkable Annual Energy Production (AEP) losses are prone to occur in those wind farms. Following global expansion of wind energy, these areas have had increased study interest in recent years. The goal of these studies is an improved characterisation of the site for the installation of turbines, which could prevent unexpected high AEP losses due to ice accretion on them. In this context, this paper provides an estimation of the freezing temperatures frequency (FTF) at 100 m over latitudes and evaluates the changes during the last 70 years. To that end, hourly surface temperature data (2 m above surface) from the ERA5 reanalysis is used in the [50◦ N, 75◦ N] latitudinal belt for the period 1950–2019. The obtained results show an average reduction of FTF hours of 72.5 h/decade for all the domain, reaching a maximum decrease of 621 h/decade on the southeast coast of Greenland and a 60% annual reduction at a specific location in Scandinavia. In terms of AEP a maximum gain of more than 26% would be projected, as categorised by the the International Energy Agency.