Where do ‘mixed, unclear, and unstable' ideologies come from? A data-driven answer centred on the incelosphere

Abstract

In Europe and North America, an increasing proportion of individuals who are referred to de-radicalization programmes, arrested for terrorism offences, or involved in politically motivated violence, present a ‘mixed, unclear, and unstable' (MUU) ideological profile instead of holding a single, clear and coherent extremist belief system. Where do these composite and often inconsistent ideological constructs come from? This paper offers a direct attempt to conceptualize and empirically expose the sources and drivers of the MUU phenomenon, using an in-depth case-study tracing the emergence of MUU ideological constructs from the incelosphere. Based on a theoretical model that acknowledges the interplay of structural-, societal-, and individual-level drivers, we argue that the MUU phenomenon results from (sometimes strategic) individual uses of a specific technological affordance–outlinking–and that these fluctuate in response to significant external events such as the Covid-19 lockdown. Our findings enhance our understanding of recent cases of extremist violence and unlock new targeted avenues for CVE intervention.