Improving predictions of leaf appearance in field grown potato

Abstract

The calculation of leaf appearance rate (LAR) and number of accumulated or emerged leaves (NL) on the main stem are part of many crop simulation models. The purpose of this study was to adapt and evaluate a model (WE model) for simulating the main stem LAR and NL in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.). The WE model is a non-linear multiplicative model that takes into account the effect of genotype and environmental factors on LAR. A linear model (Phyllochron model) was also used as a comparison with the WE model. A series of field experiments with 14 planting dates over two years (2003 and 2004) was carried out in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, using the cultivar Asterix. Coefficients of the WE model and the phyllochron model were estimated with data from four planting dates in 2003, and the models were validated with data from the other ten plantings, which are independent data. The statistics used to quantify model performance was the root mean square error (RMSE). The WE model was a better predictor of NL (RMSE=2.0 leaves) than the phyllochron model (RMSE=3.7 leaves). The WE model has coefficients with biological meaning and a non-linear temperature response function, which renders generality and robustness to this LAR model.