The Treaty is Out of the Bottle: The Power and Logic of Nuclear Disarmament

Abstract

The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, manifesting as nuclear proliferation. Efforts to contain it have generated another genie whose agenda is to establish a verifiable nuclear disarmament regime. Despite several achievements and remarkable stability, the limits of the nuclear arms control and non-proliferation regime have become evident. In the mid-1990s, therefore, civil society, in cooperation with governments and international organizations, launched a concerted effort to promote nuclear abolition. Immediate results included the 1996 International Court of Justice advisory opinion on the legality of nuclear weapons and the 1997 Model Nuclear Weapons Convention (Model NWC). Two decades later the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (Ban Treaty) creates a legal framework and provides a platform to develop a negotiating process and norm-building instruments for a nuclear-weapon-free world. Drawing on international legal theory and international relations theory (and their critiques of each other), this article examines the normative value, logic and power of nuclear disarmament. Taking the existing regime as a reference point, we compare the elements and implications of the Ban Treaty and Model NWC, and draw conclusions across various dimensions, including elements of the treaties and their approaches to elimination, verification, compliance and organization.