Dynamic change of household poverty in underdeveloped rural areas: Taking Henan province as an example

Abstract

Since the implementation of the targeted poverty alleviation strategy, rural poor population measured by the income standard has declined significantly, but rural poverty has multidimensional and dynamic characteristics. It is of great significance to carry out research on the dynamic change of rural poverty for its effective governance in the new era. Based on the data of fixed observation points in rural areas of Henan Province from 2010 to 2018, this study constructed a multidimensional poverty evaluation index system for rural households from three dimensions—income, living conditions, and education—and used Markov Transition Probability Matrix and Panel Logit Model to make an empirical analysis on poverty type transfer and the influencing factors of households falling into poverty. The results show that: 1) Multidimensional poverty is more accurate than single-dimensional poverty, especially income poverty, in reflecting the state of rural poverty. 2) The gap between the incidence of single-dimensional poverty and multidimensional poverty is widening from 2010 to 2018, which is largely related to the rise of the incidence of education poverty, and the decline of education-living condition poverty, income-education poverty, and three-dimensional poverty. 3) Single-dimensional poor households are more likely to turn into education poverty households, and multidimensional poor households are more likely to turn into education and living condition poverty. 4) The occurrence of rural household poverty is the result of the interaction of the characteristics of household head, family, and village, but the influencing factors of different types of poverty are significantly different. Compared with the occurrence of single-dimensional poverty, the occurrence of multidimensional poverty is significantly affected by fewer factors, and the influence of each factor is greater. The above conclusion indicates that along with the shift of focus of poverty alleviation in the new era to multidimensional poverty, specific poverty alleviation measures should be formulated according to the types of poverty, especially with a focus on the provision of public services such as education.