Global increase in the optimal temperature for the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract

Vegetation growth may adapt to climate warming by adjusting the relationship between photosynthetic capacity and temperature. However, changes in the optimal temperature for ecosystem productivity during recent decades of warming remain uncertain. Here we provide empirical evidence that global optimal temperature increased at a rate of 0.017 ± 0.002 °C y−1 from 1982 to 2016, using multiple datasets of satellite-derived productivity and climate variables. Model simulations show that the optimal temperature will increase by 0.027 ± 0.001 °C y−1 until the end of 21st century. The global increasing optimal temperature is consistent with increasing mean air temperatures and model simulations further confirm the key role of temperature in regulating changes in optimal temperature, while being co-regulated by other factors, such as CO2 and precipitation. These results suggest that vegetation is acclimating to warming and that the negative impacts of climate change on ecosystem productivity may be less severe than previously thought.