Pourquoi les Gens Votent-ils à Gauche? Clivages, Idéologie et Vote Rétrospectif dans une Comparaison entre la Bolivie et l’Uruguay

Abstract

The aim of this article is twofold: on one hand, to explain why Bolivian and Uruguayan citizens casted ballots for Evo Morales and José Mujica, respectively, in the 2009 presidential elections, and, on the other hand, assess the extent to which factors that determine voting can outline a purported distinction between the “two lefts” in Latin America. Using public opinion poll data concerning these two representative cases, this article shows that voter motivations were indeed different. In Uruguay, ideology and programmatic issues were more important, while in Bolivia the retrospective voting contributesmore to explain the vote for the left. In both cases, the voting patterns are also structured by social and geographic cleavages. Yet, after discussing the results in light of the secondary literature on other South American cases, it is argued that the classification in terms of “two lefts” does not hold considering the analysis of vote determinants. In methodological terms, the article uses binomial logistic regression and compares a series of statistical models.