Future projected impacts of ocean warming to potential squid habitat in western and central North Pacific

Abstract

Climate-driven changes in the marine ecosystem largely influence the distribution, abundance, and the consequent availability of marine resources to the fishery. In this study, we examined the potential habitat distributions of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) under the projected impacts of ocean warming. We used the sea surface temperature (SST) from the three CMIP5 climate scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) with the low to high future emissions. Based on the squid habitat models, SST showed the highest effect on the present potential squid habitat distribution that accounted for at least 60% of the predicted spatial patterns from May to July 2000-2010. This result underpinned the species' high sensitivity to the temperature changes in its feeding environments. Moreover, the projected future potential squid habitats revealed pronounced differences in the spatial and temporal patterns relative to the present habitat distributions across the different regions of the western and central North Pacific. The future squid habitat predictions revealed a net reduction in the suitable squid habitat coupled with the corresponding northward habitat retreat. Moreover, the magnitude of the predicted habitat changes was proportional to the levels of warming for the representative periods from May to July 2025, 2050, and 2100. The highest decrease in the spatial extent and poleward retreat of the potential squid habitat were observed from May to July 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These trends could translate to shorter squid fishing periods and offshore shifts of the squid fishing grounds. Thus, insights into the future spatio-temporal patterns and trajectories of the potential squid habitats could lend important implications on the availability of squid resources to the fishery and subsequent evaluation of squid fishery management options under climate change.