A quantitative assessment of spatial patterns of socio-demographic change in coastal Maine: one process or many?

Abstract

Coastal regions are experiencing socio-demographic shifts that have local, regional, and even wider implications for coastal management and planning. These shifts can arise from different local geographic drivers. This paper considers different change processes and undertakes a quantitative analysis to investigate potential drivers and geographic variations in coastal change processes. We use coastal Maine as the study region and employ multivariate methods using American Community Survey 5-year estimate period data. We first address the question: is there a coastal effect? Secondly, we conduct a cluster analysis to identify spatial variations in processes that may be at work over the extent of the coast. Thirdly, we conduct a change analysis to identify where socio-economic and demographic shifts are occurring most rapidly. Our analysis contributes to the understanding of comparative and quantitative analysis of change processes in a coastal setting that may be variously categorized as amenity migration, counterurbanization, suburbanization, or touristification depending on geographic context. Comparative results show clear separation between coastal and non-coastal communities on several individual indicators. The K-means cluster analysis reveals multivariate differentiation among the group of coastal communities. The ranked change analysis indicates differentiation among the coastal group, pointing toward potential differentiation in processes driving these changes.