Probabilistic framework for modelling the evolution of geomorphic features in 10,000-year time scale: The Eurajoki River case

Abstract

In this paper the long-term evolution of the catchment area of Eurajoki River, situated in Western Finland, is studied. The modelling area, nearly 1000 km2 in size, is at present mostly covered by sea. Probabilistic digital elevation model and land uplift model form the basis for the future catchment area modelling. A land uplift model is required due to the ongoing post-glacial rebound especially in the western parts of Finland. The maximum rate of land uplift in Finland is 1 cm per year while in the modelling area the land uplift rate is about 6 mm per year. The digital elevation model and land uplift model have been calculated using Monte Carlo simulation where the uncertainties in the source data have been taken into account. The probabilistic nature of these models enables also the river catchment area and river network analyses probabilistically. The analyses are done for the next 10,000 years in 1000-year intervals and 100 realizations are estimated for each time point. The results show that the catchment area expands towards the west as the land rises. An alternative river branch flowing northwards from the main course will form with a significant probability. Also, a delta area with multiple river branches is expected to form at about 7000 years after present.