Systematic error and uncertain carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. power plants

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from U.S. power plants are independently reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Differences between the CAMD and EIA emission tallies show that the amount of CO2 produced by an individual power plant is less certain than might be imagined or desired. These differences are attributed to systematic error and random measurement error. Random error cannot be retroactively corrected, whereas systematic error can be corrected where relevant data are available. Accordingly, this study identified and, where possible, corrected systematic error affecting the CAMD and EIA CO2 emission tallies for 1065 power plants that emitted more than 25,000 tons of CO2 during 2013. The EIA tallies were corrected by accounting for emission factor error, acid-gas sorbent consumption, and combustion of biogenic fuel. The CAMD tallies were likewise corrected by accounting for unreported unit emissions. It was not possible to objectively correct systematic error affecting about 11% of the power plants, and subjective corrections were not attempted. At these plants, the CAMD and EIA emission tallies sometimes differed by more than 20% due to missing unit error, plant identification error, temporal measurement error, or inferred reporting error. Comparisons of the CAMD and EIA emission tallies before and after correction for systematic error show the effectiveness of these corrections. The comparisons also show the persistence of random measurement error. Implications: Understanding the uncertainty of CO2 emission tallies for USA power plants might inform emission inventories, atmospheric flow models or inversions, and emission reduction policies. Knowing the cause and size of measurement errors that contribute to this uncertainty might also help to identify ways to improve the measurement methods and reporting protocols that these CO2 emission tallies are based on.