Mixed frequency evidence of the tourism growth relationship in small Island developing states: a case study of Tonga

Abstract

In this study, we examine the effect of tourism on economic growth in Tonga. We apply Ghysels Beta-MIDAS approach to estimate the elasticity of tourism, identify breaks with the multiple break test, and test for causality using the mixed frequency VAR approach. We utilize a sample from 1995 quarter 1 to 2018 quarter 4. The results indicate that the long-run effect of tourism is 0.06. Two structural breaks are identified, and both have negative growth effects. Unidirectional causality from tourism to real per-capita GDP is noted. The findings indicate that Tonga’s economic growth can be improved by promoting tourism.