A coastal flood early-warning system based on offshore sea state forecasts and artificial neural networks

Abstract

An integrated methodological approach to the development of a coastal flood early-warning system is presented in this paper to improve societal preparedness for coastal flood events. The approach consists of two frameworks, namely the Hindcast Framework and the Forecast Framework. The aim of the former is to implement a suite of high-credibility numerical models and validate them according to past flooding events, while the latter takes advantage of these validated models and runs a plethora of scenarios representing distinct sea-state events to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that is capable of predicting the impending coastal flood risks. The proposed approach was applied in the flood-prone coastal area of Rethymno in the Island of Crete in Greece. The performance of the developed ANN is good, given the complexity of the problem, accurately predicting the targeted coastal flood risks. It is capable of predicting such risks without requiring time-consuming numerical simulations; the ANN only requires the offshore wave characteristics (height, period and direction) and sea-water-level elevation, which can be obtained from open databases. The generic nature of the proposed methodological approach allows its application in numerous coastal regions.