Total stability failure probability of a ship in beam wind and waves: Model experiment and numerical simulation

Abstract

To establish second-generation intact stability criteria, the International Maritime Organization requires experimentally validated numerical simulation models for stability under the dead ship condition. Here, a beam wind and wave condition is selected as the worst-case scenario and the total-stability-failure probability is quantified. The authors developed a coupled sway–heave–roll–pitch numerical model and compared it with physical experiments of a ship model in artificial irregular beam waves and fluctuating beam wind. The results indicate that the probability of total stability failure estimated by the simulation exists within the confidence interval range of those estimated by the experiment.