The Influence of Islam on the Assessment of Earthquake Hazards and Seismic Risk

Abstract

In 1960, two moderate earthquakes (Mw: 5.6 - 5.8) destroyed Agadir, Morocco, leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Over two summers (2002, 2004) more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were interviewed for their know- ledge and perception of the disaster fifty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French, and English and in- cluded questions and Likert-scaled responses regarding their perceptions of quake recurrence, seismology, construction standard policies, and regional planning strategies. First, it was found that television watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the 1960 earthquake were better understood by this group. This supports the notion that the medium of television is the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass com- munication and education tool. Second, younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believe that brick, mortar and cement structures were safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick structures. Third, and most important, it was found that the less educated often attributed earthquakes to divine punishment and retribution, and not ‘natural causes’. Questions about possible quake recurrence caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, often with the reply, ‘Allahu a‘lam’ (God knows best) – often stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, and seismology-related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited in Islam. Respondents indicated that science was predictive and therefore akin to fortune-telling: an act forbidden by the Quran and Hadith. The less educated often stated that a) Allah protected those who were devout, b) science or scientific assessment was futile since forecasting was forbidden, and c) that new construction technologies were a waste since only the kafir (non-Muslim) or munafiq (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These findings are significant in gaining a better insight of hazard perception, and the link between science and behavior. An under- standing of personal and community refusals to prepare for an imminent quake is vital in the creation and implementa- tion of effective seismic-related policies. High-risk behavior and planning (or lack thereof) in a seismically active re- gion, in an often poorly re-built structures, in an densely populated urban setting of more than 600,000 people, and in a region laced by active faults is a recipe for potential disaster