Intensity change of typhoon nancy (1961) during landfall in a moist environment over Japan: A numerical simulation with spectral nudging

Abstract

Intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) as they make landfall is closely linked to sustained periods of high surface winds and heavy precipitation. Few studies have investigated the intensity change of intense TCs that make landfall in middle latitudes such as Japan because few intense typhoons make landfall in middle latitudes. In this study, a numerical simulation of intense Typhoon Nancy (1961) was used to understand the intensity change that occurred when Nancy made landfall in Japan. A spectral nudging technique was introduced to reduce track errors in the simulation. During landfall, the simulated storm exhibited the salient asymmetric structure and rapid eyewall contraction. A tangential wind budget indicated that the maximum wind speed decreased concurrent with an increase in surface friction and advection associated with low-level asymmetric flows. Detailed evolution of the storm's warm core was analyzed with a potential temperature budget. In the upper part of the warm core centered at a 12-km height, cooling due to ventilation by asymmetric flows and longwave radiation overcame heating due to condensation and shortwave radiation during the contraction of eyewall clouds. In the lower part of the warm core, adiabatic cooling more than offset warm-air intrusions associated with asymmetric flows and condensational heating. The condensation was supplied by an abundance of moisture due to evaporation from the ocean in the well-developed typhoon based on a moisture budget. Sensitivity experiments revealed that environmental baroclinicity in the midlatitudes, orography, and radiative processes made minor contributions to the weakening. The weakening was instead controlled by inner-core dynamics and interactions with land surfaces.