The Manifold Of Variations: hazard assessment of short-term impactors

Abstract

When an asteroid has a few observations over a short time span the information contained in the observational arc could be so little that a full orbit determination may be not possible. One of the methods developed in recent years to overcome this problem is based on the systematic ranging and combined with the Admissible Region theory to constrain the poorly-determined topocentric range and range-rate. The result is a set of orbits compatible with the observations, the Manifold Of Variations, a two-dimensional compact manifold parametrised over the Admissible Region. Such a set of orbits represents the asteroid confidence region and is used for short-term hazard predictions. In this paper we present the Manifold Of Variations method and make a detailed analysis of the related probabilistic formalism.