Ranking of psychosocial and traditional risk factors by importance for coronary heart disease: The Copenhagen City Heart Study

Abstract

Aims To rank psychosocial and traditional risk factors by importance for coronary heart disease. Methods and results The Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective cardiovascular population study randomly selected in 1976. The third examination was carried out from 1991 to 1994, and 8882 men and women free of cardiovascular diseases were included in this study. Events were assessed until April 2013. Forward selection, population attributable fraction, and gradient boosting machine were used for determining ranks. The importance of vital exhaustion for risk prediction was investigated by C-statistics and net reclassification improvement. During the follow-up, 1731 non-fatal and fatal coronary events were registered. In men, the highest ranking risk factors for coronary heart disease were vital exhaustion [high vs. low; hazard ratio (HR) 2.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.70-3.26; P < 0.001] and systolic blood pressure (≥160 mmHg or blood pressure medication vs. <120 mmHg; HR 2.07; 95% CI, 1.48-2.88; P < 0.001). In women, smoking was of highest importance (≥15 g tobacco/day vs. never smoker; HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.43-2.11; P < 0.001), followed by vital exhaustion (high vs. low; HR 2.07; 95% CI, 1.61-2.68; P < 0.001). Vital exhaustion ranked first in women and fourth in men by population attributable fraction of 27.7% (95% CI, 18.6-36.7%; P < 0.001) and 21.1% (95% CI, 13.0-29.2%; P < 0.001), respectively. Finally, vital exhaustion significantly improved risk prediction. Conclusion Vital exhaustion was one of the most important risk factors for coronary heart disease, our findings emphasize the importance of including psychosocial factors in risk prediction scores.