Social and Ethical Implications of Digital Crisis Technologies: Case Study of Pandemic Simulation Models During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Background: Responses to public health crises are increasingly technological in nature, as the prominence of COVID-19–related statistics and simulations amply demonstrates. However, the use of technologies is preconditional and has various implications. These implications can not only affect acceptance but also challenge the acceptability of these technologies with regard to the ethical and normative dimension. Objective: This study focuses on pandemic simulation models as algorithmic governance tools that played a central role in political decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the social implications of pandemic simulation models, the premises of data collection, sorting, and evaluation must be disclosed and reflected upon. Consequently, the social construction principles of digital health technologies must be revealed and examined for their effects with regard to social, ethical, and ultimately political issues. Methods: This case study starts with a systematization of different simulation approaches to create a typology of pandemic simulation models. On the basis of this, various properties, functions, and challenges of these simulation models are revealed and discussed in detail from a socioscientific point of view. Results: The typology of pandemic simulation methods reveals the diversity of model-driven handling of pandemic threats. However, it is reasonable to assume that the use of simulation models could increasingly shift toward agent-based or artificial intelligence models in the future, thus promoting the logic of algorithmic decision-making in response to public health crises. As algorithmic decision-making focuses more on predicting future dynamics than statistical practices of assessing pandemic events, this study discusses this development in detail, resulting in an operationalized overview of the key social and ethical issues related to pandemic crisis technologies. Conclusions: This study identifies 3 major recommendations for the future of pandemic crisis technologies.