Key forecasts and prospects for green transition in the region of Central Asia beyond 2022

Abstract

Background: The transition to energy-sustainable systems is a globally accepted concept, but it is implemented with various degrees of success around the world. The aim of this paper is to determine the status of green transition in five Central Asian countries (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and the Kyrgyz Republic) that are among the highest energy consumers globally and the most vulnerable to climate change. Despite a notable improvement in living conditions across all countries over the past two decades, the region remains underdeveloped. Economic growth is based on the export of natural resources and remittance inflows, but the structure of the economy is monolithic. Main findings: Upon analysing transition indicators for the period 2000–2020, no evidence of significant changes towards a sustainable energy transition is found. All countries in the region (except Uzbekistan) have recorded an increase in carbon emissions, while the carbon intensity of the energy mix is almost the same. While there has been visible progress in reducing energy intensity, the countries in the region remain among the most energy-intensive economies. Despite the region’s substantial potential for renewable energy production, it remains underutilized. Conclusions: A multitude of varied problems accompanies the green transition in Central Asian countries. The energy market that has not yet been liberalised, along with significant subsidies and low energy tariffs, discourages investments in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency initiatives. A high level of corruption, rigid legislative and institutional infrastructure, and insufficient capital are additional factors that determine the speed, scope, and effectiveness of the green transition. Thus far, the primary focus in these countries has been on ensuring energy security. However, there has been a discernible surge in investments (particularly from China) in renewable energy projects. Although energy efficiency and climate change issues are formally defined, the energy transition goals are often declarative without an action plan that provides concrete steps in transition process. Strategic planing of economic development that includes all related sectors (not only the energy sector) and paying attention to socio-economic and environmental indicators of sustainable development are prerequisites for successfully implementating the energy transition in these countries.