Indian ocean warming

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content (OHC, upper 700 m) in the tropical Indian Ocean underwent rapid warming during 1950 2015, with the SSTs showing an average warming of about 1 °C. The SST and OHC trends are very likely to continue in the future, under different emission scenarios. Climate models project a rise in tropical Indian Ocean SST by 1.2 1.6 °C and 1.6 2.7 °C in the near (2040 2069) and far (2070 2099) future across greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to the reference period of 1976 2005. Indian Ocean warming has very likely resulted in decreasing trend in oxygen (O2) concentrations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and declining trends in pH and marine phytoplankton over the western Indian Ocean. The observed trends in O2, pH and marine phytoplankton are projected to increase in the future with continued GHG emissions.