Dynamics of the sundarbans mangroves in Bangladesh under climate change

Abstract

Mangroves provide a range of ecosystem services ranging from mitigation of global climate change by carbon capture to the sustenance of local communities whose livelihood depends upon mangrove forest products. A hybrid model is used to analyse and project the spatial distribution of mangrove species assemblages with results showing that the distribution will alter substantially within a hundred years associated with a significant decrease in the forest cover area. These changes are reflected in the amount of carbon sequestered in the mangroves in the form of biomass with a decrease anticipated over this century. Simulations of relative sea-level rise also indicate a loss in mangrove area mainly driven by erosion rather than inundation. Re-afforestation is one option of management strategy which could compensate for these changes.