Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature series over southwest Iran

Abstract

This paper presents results of trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation, and mean temperature (TM), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN) time series of the period 1950-2007. Investigations were carried out for 50 precipitation stations and 39 temperature stations located in southwest Iran. Three statistical tests including Pettitt's test, Sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQ-MK test) and Mann-Kendall rank test (MK-test) were used for the analysis. The results obtained for precipitation series indicated that most stations showed insignificant trends in annual and seasonal series. Out of the stations which showed significant trends, highest numbers were observed during winter season while no significant trends were detected in summer precipitation. Moreover, no decreasing significant trends were detected by statistical tests in annual and seasonal precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during summer and spring seasons. TMAX was more stable than TMIN and TM, and winter was stable compared to summer, spring and autumn seasons. The results of change point detection indicated that most of the positive significant mutation points in TM, TMAX and TMIN began in the 1990s. © Indian Academy of Sciences.