Long-Term Dynamic of Cold Stress during Heading and Flowering Stage and Its Effects on Rice Growth in China

Abstract

Short episodes of low-temperature stress during reproductive stages can cause significant crop yield losses, but our understanding of the dynamics of extreme cold events and their impact on rice growth and yield in the past and present climate remains limited. In this study, by analyzing historical climate, phenology and yield component data, the spatial and temporal variability of cold stress during the rice heading and flowering stages and its impact on rice growth and yield in China was characterized. The results showed that cold stress was unevenly distributed throughout the study region, with the most severe events observed in the Yunnan Plateau with altitudes higher than 1800 m. With the increasing temperature, a significant decreasing trend in cold stress was observed across most of the three ecoregions after the 1970s. However, the phenological-shift effects with the prolonged growing period during the heading and flowering stages have slowed down the cold stress decreasing trend and led to an underestimation of the magnitude of cold stress events. Meanwhile, cold stress during heading and flowering will still be a potential threat to rice production. The cold stress-induced yield loss is related to both the intensification of extreme cold stress and the contribution of related components to yield in the three regions.