The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland

Abstract

Heavy precipitation is a major natural hazard in the Alps. Understanding the possible changes due to climate change is a prerequisite for effective climate adaptation and protection. In this study, we revisit the long-term (1901–2023) evolution of daily and multi-day heavy precipitation intensity and frequency, discuss trends for sub-daily to multi-day events in the recent period 1981–2023 and investigate elevation dependencies in the complex topography of Switzerland. We analyze station measurements from MeteoSwiss' dense operational network covering the whole country and a wide range of elevation levels. We find that daily maximum precipitation and the frequency of precipitation events exceeding the 99th all-day percentile have increased since 1901 with a peak in the 1980s and decreases thereafter. For the recent period 1981–2023, positive trends in summer heavy precipitation intensity are detected for short (10-min to 3-h) events, but no changes are found for the frequency of these moderate extreme events. For longer (1- to 5-day) events on the other hand, decreases in intensity and frequency are found, especially for the winter half-year. We hypothesize that the opposing trends on the centennial (1901–2023) vs. decadal (1981–2023) time scales are caused by the interaction between thermodynamics, reflecting the primary influence of human-induced climate change, and the internal variability of atmospheric dynamics. Moreover, we observe a small negative elevation dependency of the daily long-term trends up to 2300 m above sea level. For the 1981–2023 trends, no strong elevation dependencies are found for sub-daily events. For daily events, we find small opposing negative summer and positive winter elevation dependencies for both intensities and frequencies. The reason for these tendencies remains unclear. Our results underscore the need to further investigate the interplay between climate change, internal variability of large-scale dynamics and elevation to better understand heavy precipitation variability in the complex Alpine terrain.