Modelling of the Kopili Fault based on slip rate, moment rate and seismic activity in Mikir Hills Plateau of Northeastern India

Abstract

The recurrence period of maximum magnitude earthquake in a seismogenically active formation along the Kopili Fault has been estimated having adequate dependence on the slip rate, moment rate and its seismicity pattern. Here, the frequency–magnitude cum fault area–maximum magnitude relations play a key role with input parameters pertinent to the Kopili Fault zone. Subsequently, where the fault slip rate estimates are not available, the seismic activity is studied from the seismic moment release. The results of this study show that the return period has a strong relation with the fault length, slip rate, strain drop and rigidity. This study ascertains the activity rate in terms of the return period as ∼50 ± 5 years with the moment release of 2.12E+23 dyne-cm from the most active 80-km fault length considering Mw 5.5 as reference magnitude under the Kopili Fault zone that may produce a maximum magnitude of Mw ∼ 7.6. Finally, we conclude that these models can be used to study the rate of seismicity of the active faults in Northeast India which will provide us prime inputs for seismic hazard analysis of the region and is especially significant for estimating expected return period for poorly known faults or blind faults that lack surface expression.