Đánh giá thực trạng và tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến xâm nhập mặn tỉnh Bến Tre

Abstract

Ben Tre is a coastal province, where there are 4 big estuaries flowing into the sea, so it is often affected by saline intrusion during the dry season. This study was conducted to evaluate the situation and assess the impacts of climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) on saline intrusion in Ben Tre province according to various scenarios until 2050. Salinity measurement data from 2000 - 2016 of 6 salinity gauging stations in the province was analyzed to assess the saline intrusion in Ben Tre province. MIKE11 was used to simulate the saline intrusion under the impact of different climate change scenarios until 2050. The results show that in the period of 2000 - 2016, saline intrusion in Ben Tre province in the first-half tends to increase in most stations. On a monthly basis, the uptrend is expressed mainly, and is clearly reflected in the months of January, February and March. Under the impact of climate change and sea level rise, salinity tends to intrude deeper along the rivers to the mainland. 1 ‰ salinity is capable of intruding nearly 55 km on Co Chien River, 65 km on Ham Luong River, 68 km on Tien Giang River; 5 ‰ salinity is capable of intruding up to 42 km on Co Chien River, 44 km on Ham Luong River, 56 km on Tien Giang River