Profitability estimation of XYZ company using H-infinity and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract

One strategy for a company to develop and grow bigger and stronger in competition is by business expansion. According to Moin (2010:2), there are two strategic ways to maintain and expand a business, that is, an internal expansion strategy by building a new business or business unit from scratch and an external expansion strategy in the form of a business merger by buying an existing company through a merger, acquisitions and consolidations which are fast-track to new markets. Profitability is a factor that gets important attention because it can attract investors to make investment in the company. Profit is the gab beetwen revenue and expenses in a certain period in a company.It has very important role for either internal or external of the company. One way to reduce the risk of company losses is by using an estimation method to find out the company's estimated profit for the next month or next year. In this study the estimation method for travel company was used, that is, by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and H-infinity, as a policy making chart in order to maintain and increase company profits. Based on the analysis of results computation with 100, 200 and 300 iterations, it showed an error of less than 3%.